News · Flooding · Newcastle and Maitland
A draft flood study identifies 1,903 western Newcastle properties as newly flood affected. Exhibition is planned for October
The draft Hexham and Woodberry Swamp Catchments Flood Study maps flash flooding from the creeks that drain Wallsend, Jesmond, Beresfield, Minmi, Maryland, Thornton and their neighbours. In the Newcastle part of the study area it identifies about 5,949 flood-affected properties, 1,903 of them not previously identified, and about 390 that drop off. Newcastle and Maitland councils endorsed it for public exhibition in September. It is a draft, it has not been adopted, and the council’s project page says exhibition will begin in October.
The short answer. If you own property in western Newcastle and the new maps
put it inside the flood-affected area for the first time, City of Newcastle’s report says
Letters will be sent to all property owners newly identified as flood affected.
Those
owners will be offered time with a council officer or technical specialist. The maps are not public
yet: as at 7 October 2026, the
project
page said The public exhibition will begin in October 2026.
and that interactive flood
maps will be added when it opens. Exhibition runs for at least 28 days, and the councils must
consider submissions before either adopts the study.
What the study covers
City of Newcastle is leading the study with Maitland City Council and Cessnock City Council. It covers about 200 square kilometres draining to the Hexham and Woodberry swamps, mostly the western half of Newcastle, plus parts of Maitland and Cessnock and a small piece of Lake Macquarie. The Newcastle report lists Beresfield, Tarro, Black Hill, Lenaghan, Hexham, Minmi, Fletcher, Maryland, Wallsend, Elermore Vale, Shortland, Mayfield West, Callaghan, Waratah West, North Lambton, Lambton and Rankin Park. In Maitland it is Thornton, Woodberry and Millers Forest, and in Cessnock, Stockrington and part of Black Hill.
It is about flash flooding: short, intense rain running off through the 11 creeks and channels that feed the swamps. It does not assess flooding from the Hunter River or the swamps themselves. According to the project page, detailed flood studies existed for only two of those 11 waterways before this one, Ironbark Creek through Wallsend and Dark Creek through Jesmond, and the Newcastle report says the study would repeal and replace both of those 2008 studies if adopted. Much of the rest of western Newcastle relied on 2008 Hunter River flood mapping.
The numbers in the Newcastle part of the study
Flood-affected properties, Newcastle part of the study area
City of Newcastle, report 9.5, Ordinary Council Meeting 22 September 2026, pages 2 to 3. All the council’s figures are “approximately”.
| Measure | Properties |
|---|---|
| Flood affected (inside the probable maximum flood extent) | 5,949 |
| of which not previously identified as flood affected | 1,903 |
| No longer flood affected | 390 |
| Net addition (our arithmetic: 1,903 minus 390) | 1,513 |
| Inside the 1% AEP flood today | 4,244 |
| Inside the 1% AEP flood in 2050, the proposed planning line | 4,384 |
Two things matter about that 1,903. First, the council says it is mostly better mapping, not new
water: The increase therefore largely reflects the expanded study coverage, updated survey
information and contemporary modelling methods, rather than a sudden change in existing flood
behaviour.
(page 2). Second, “flood affected” is the widest possible category. The
line that sets building rules is narrower: the council proposes the 1% AEP flood as it is projected
for 2050, which takes in 4,384 properties in the Newcastle part of the study area, 140 more than
today’s 1% AEP flood (our arithmetic). That is the same planning line Newcastle already applies
in the east of the city under its 2023 Throsby, Styx and Cottage Creek study.
Counting both studies, the report says approximately 49% of Newcastle properties are
identified as flood affected for all flood types (currently 39,927), compared to approximately 30%
under previous mapping.
(page 2). That figure includes the western study, which is still a
draft.
The finding that matters most: Wallsend
The report names Wallsend, Jesmond and Beresfield as the areas of greatest flash flood hazard in
the study. There, roads may become unsafe for people and vehicles during events as frequent as a
10% AEP event
, a flood with a 1 in 10 chance in any year (page 3). Because flash floods rise fast
with little warning, it says residents who cannot leave early may need to shelter in place.
Wallsend town centre is singled out. In the probable maximum flood, large parts of it reach H5
and H6, the two highest hazard classes, unsafe for people and vehicles, where current NSW guidance
does not recommend sheltering in place in H5 and does not consider it appropriate in H6. And the
report adds that this is not only an extreme-event problem: Large parts of Wallsend town centre
are also exposed to H5 conditions during the 1% AEP event
, which it says highlights a
significant risk to life
(page 3).
Thornton and the Maitland side
Maitland’s report reads more calmly for its part of the map. Around Thornton, it says flash
flood flows are generally contained within existing watercourses and most residential areas
remain flood-free
(agenda page 94). It names the overland flow paths that do touch homes: from
Abercrombie Close to Haussman Drive and Beyer Road, and from Everlyn Crescent to John Arthur Drive
and Honeymyrtle Street. Along Weakleys Drive, flows break out of the watercourses and affect
commercial properties in a 2% AEP (1 in 50) event, and In very rare events, such as the 1 in 2,000
AEP event, parts of Thornton Industrial Estate may be temporarily isolated.
The low rural floodplain around Millers Forest and Woodberry, which floods mainly from the river over longer periods, is outside this study. Maitland says those risks go into its separate LGA-wide Flood Risk Management Study and Plan, with a report on mid-project consultation due to council in October 2026 and a draft plan for exhibition in early 2027 (agenda page 95).
What the climate scenarios add
The study models 2050 and 2100. The Newcastle report says that by 2050, depths in a 1% AEP flood are projected to rise by about 0.05m to 0.15m under a medium-emissions scenario (SSP2). By 2100 it projects rises of about 0.15m to 0.40m in a 1% AEP flood, and flood extent and the number of affected properties and buildings rising by 10% to 15%. It says a flood with today’s 1 in 100 odds may become roughly a 1 in 50 event by then (pages 3 to 4).
Who voted, and what happens next
Maitland City Council endorsed the draft for exhibition on 15 September, 13 votes to nil
(minutes pages 31 to 32). City of Newcastle did so on 22 September; the unconfirmed minutes record
the motion Carried unanimously
(page 11). The same Newcastle resolution adopted updated 2023
mapping for Kimbarra Close, Wallace Street, Gregory Parade and Howell Street in Kotara, where
corrected culvert sizes added four properties to the flood-affected area (report page 5). The
project page records an update to Cessnock’s Floodplain Risk Management Committee on 17
September; we did not check Cessnock’s council papers for this story.
Maitland’s report says there will be four drop-in information sessions during exhibition:
at Thornton, Millers Forest, Beresfield and Wallsend (agenda page 96). Dates were not published as
at 7 October. After exhibition, each council receives a report on submissions before adoption. If
Newcastle adopts it, development on affected land would be assessed under section B1(b) of its
Development Control Plan 2023, and the report is explicit that Being identified as flood affected
does not prevent a property from being developed
(page 6); the controls depend on the proposal
and the site.
Our view
This section is opinion, built on the facts above.
The number that will travel is 1,903, and it is the less useful one. The council itself says most of it is the map catching up with what the creeks already do, and inclusion in the widest category carries no automatic building rule. The finding residents should actually weigh is Wallsend: a town centre where the study puts the second-highest hazard class inside a 1 in 100 year flood, with roads that can turn unsafe in a 1 in 10. That is a planning and emergency question, not a mapping one, and the councils will have to answer it in the risk management plans that follow.
Newcastle’s own report expects the questions to be about planning controls, insurance
affordability, property values and future development opportunities
(page 8). Those are fair
questions, and the honest way to meet them is the one the council has promised: a letter to every
newly identified owner before the maps are argued about in public. We will add the exhibition dates
and the session times to this story when the councils publish them.
Spotted an error in this story? Ask for a correction. Corrections are published, dated and left visible.